Effective: 16 October 2014
Validity Period: 16 Oct – 30+ days
CYBER INTELLIGENCE REPORT: Hong Kong Democracy Protests
1. INTRODUCTION: This is a cyber intelligence product based on a variety of sources, expertise and analysis. It is a report on a specific event. This is a general information product for executive awareness.
2. OBSERVED: On Oct 14th a Hong Kong television station released a video of a pro-democracy protestor being beaten by police. The government of the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) has called for an end of the protests and warned other nations to stay out of the protest. The story is receiving global media coverage.
3. Timeline:
A. In our 141010 Cyber Intelligence Summary we reported that the People’s Republic of China is using malware to identify and conduct surveillance on pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong.
B. Overnight Oct 14: pro-democracy protestor beaten by police.
C. Oct 15: PRC government issues warning to Taiwan to “stay out” of Hong Kong pro-democracy protests. PRC editorials in multiple media outlets1 called for Hong Kong students to halt their pro- democracy protest.
D. Oct 15th: Hong Kong’s current leader calls for a meeting with student protestors and says politics is the art of possible. He infers what they want is not possible.
E. Oct 15th: Some Hong Kong office workers demonstrate support for pro-democracy demonstrators by having lunch with students at the demonstration barricades.
F. Oct 16th: Global media2 reports police beating of Hong Kong protestor.
4. COMMENT: The PRC has already introduced both Android and Apple ( iPhone and iPad ) malware into the Hong Kong protestors3. Analysis indicated malware identifies devices and tracks all data including location and communications.
A. The previous PRC regime used media editorials to both indicate official policy and sometimes to call for “people’s support”. In the case of disputes between the Republic of the Philippines and the PRC this lead to hacker attacks by PRC citizens on Philippine government web sites.
B. As the PRC hackers engaged the Republic of the Philippines, Philippine netizens asked for help from global hacktivists such as ‘Anonymous’ to attack PRC web sites.
C. The result was a cyber conflict that lasted several weeks.
5. ASSESSMENT: It is ASSESSED that there is a strong possibility of cyber conflict between the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protestors. Further, the conditions are highly similar to other cyber conflicts where outside groups contributed to the conflict. There is potential for a cyber conflict to occur and broaden in scope affecting a wider geopolitical area. It is projected that these unstabilizing conditions will remain in place for at least the next 30 days.
David Swan CD
CSCSS Defence Intelligence Group writing Cyber Intelligence is a services division within CSCSS. We define Cyber Intelligence as ‘forecasting aggressor cyber activities’. Our services provide our clients with assessments and forecasts of cyber attacks that may impact them, as tools for: strategic planning, operational support and response.
For additional detail on this cyber intelligence report including amplyfing information, comments, assessment and / or specific recommendations, contact David Swan, Executive Vice President, CSCSS Defence Intelligence Group
E-mail: [email protected]
Tel: 1 403 485 6187
1Editorials were in 15 Oct editions of People’s Daily ( online version ) and China Daily ( online version )
2International Media included CNN, and Reuters. Major national media also carried the story including: Sydney Morning Herald, Irish Times, Washington Post, and CTV ( Canada ).
3Our Intelligence Summary dated 141010 refers.
